In March, the metal content of NPI in Indonesia increased by approximately 6.16% MoM. In April, the metal content is expected to decrease by around 0.44% MoM [SMM Analysis].

Published: Apr 1, 2025 11:27

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【SMM Analysis: Indonesia's NPI Metal Content Rose Approximately 6.16% MoM in March 2025, Expected to Decline Around 0.44% MoM in April】In March 2025, Indonesia's NPI metal content increased by approximately 6.16% MoM and rose by about 20.01% YoY...

SMM April 1 News: In March 2025, Indonesia's NPI metal content increased by approximately 6.16% MoM and 20.01% YoY. In March, Indonesia frequently introduced nickel resource policies, increasing market uncertainty about nickel supply. Additionally, the release of nickel ore fell short of expectations, and smelter nickel ore inventories were low, resulting in a relatively limited overall increase. In terms of specific supply increments, some new capacity was released, but only a slight increase was seen due to limited nickel ore supply. Furthermore, production in a major production area in February declined sharply due to management adjustments, but gradually recovered in March with external financial support. On the demand side, domestic stainless steel production expanded in March, leading to a short-term increase in demand for high-grade NPI. Production in a major production area with stainless steel production lines also increased. Due to tight supply of medium and high-grade nickel ore, some smelters experienced slight production declines due to insufficient raw materials. Additionally, the average grade of nickel ore declined, resulting in a relatively weak overall metal content increase in March.

It is expected that in April 2025, Indonesia's NPI metal content will decrease by approximately 0.44% MoM and increase by 15.3% YoY. The release of medium and high-grade nickel ore in April is expected to remain tight, and smelter NPI metal content will continue to decline. According to the SMM survey, the production pace in major production areas remained basically stable compared to March. Production in a previously management-adjusted line is ramping up, but the ramp-up is limited due to tight nickel ore supply. From the downstream demand perspective, domestic stainless steel production schedules remain at high levels, providing strong support for NPI demand. Overall, production is slightly weaker due to fewer production days and a decline in average grade.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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